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Citigroup return forecast underwhelms investors, shares slide

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Jane Fraser speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., on Monday, April 29, 2019.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg via Getty Images

Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser is setting the bar for her bank to improve its lagging performance – modestly so.

The company set a “medium term” target for return on tangible common equity, a key banking industry metric, for “~11 – 12%,” according to slides released Wednesday.

Analysts and investors have been anticipating a set of fresh financial targets and disclosures for the event, which went virtual after a pair of Citigroup executives caught the coronavirus. Fraser took over at Citigroup, the third biggest U.S. bank by assets, almost exactly a year ago.

The most crucial is the return target. Last year, the bank posted a 13.4% return, thanks in part to releasing reserves set aside for bad loans and booming Wall Street markets. Even then, Citigroup had the lowest returns of the six biggest U.S. banks.

Several analysts had expected Citigroup to aim slightly higher. For instance, Morgan Stanley’s Betsy Graseck said in a recent note that she expected a ROTCE target of “at least 12%.”

Shares of New York-based Citigroup dipped 1% after the release, while rival banks including Bank of America and Wells Fargo were slightly higher in premarket trading.

“We’ve been getting a ton of questions on Citi over the last few weeks as investors position for Citi’s new CEO Jane Fraser to outline her strategy to grow the bank,” Graseck wrote. “Most frequent question is how will Citi deliver a higher ROTCE and narrow the return gap to peers?”

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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