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August Vehicle Sales Forecast: Unchanged at 13.3 million SAAR

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by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2022 10:37:00 AM

From WardsAuto: August U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Running Flat with July; Inventory Set to Increase (pay content). Brief excerpt:

“The overriding factor is that even without headwinds such as higher interest rates, low consumer confidence, elevated fuel prices and an inventory mix favoring more expensive models, the general lack of availability of new vehicles would keep sales from being significantly stronger.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for August (Red).

The Wards forecast of 13.3 million SAAR, would be mostly unchanged from last month, and up 2% from a year ago (sales started to weaken in mid-2021, due to supply chain issues).

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy (far behind housing). However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates.

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